Rent vs Buy: 49 US Cities (2026)

Is it better to rent or buy in the US right now?

At current 6.8% mortgage rates and 2024-2025 housing prices, renting + investing the down payment beats buying for the full 30-year horizon in many major metros. Cities where buying still wins on reasonable timelines: Memphis, Detroit, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis — all have break-even in 8-15 years. Cities where renting wins 30-year: SF, LA, San Diego, Boston, Miami at current prices.

What is a good break-even year for buying a home?

A break-even year under 7 means buying wins in almost any realistic scenario. 7-12 years is reasonable if you're confident you'll stay. 12-20 years is marginal — works for settled families but not early-career. Over 20 years means renting is effectively the better choice unless you strongly prefer homeownership for non-financial reasons.

How does the calculator handle opportunity cost?

Our calculator assumes the renter invests the down payment (the same lump sum the buyer put into the house) plus any monthly savings (when ownership costs exceed rent) at a 7% annual real return (S&P long-term historical). Buyers meanwhile build equity as the mortgage principal pays down and the home appreciates 3%/year. We compare both positions year-by-year to find the true break-even.

Why is buying so hard to justify in 2026?

Two reasons stacked: mortgage rates are at 6.8% (vs 3% in 2021), and home prices have stayed near 2022 peaks. The combination means monthly P&I is roughly 80% higher than it was four years ago for the same home. Meanwhile rent growth has cooled. Break-even math that favored buying strongly in 2019-2021 now favors renting in most metros — the numbers have just changed.